CFL Pass

CFL Simulation: Riders sitting in prime position

TORONTO — We’re well on the Shaw Road to the Grey Cup, and with the Eastern and Western Semi-Finals upon us, the CFL Simulation takes a look at who has the best chance at hoisting the 107th Grey Cup presented by Shaw.

As the leaders of their respective divisions, the Saskatchewan Roughriders and Hamilton Tiger-Cats hold the best odds of all the teams involved.

The Riders have 75 percent odds to appear in the Grey Cup game and the best odds to take the trophy home. They also feature in three of the four most likely championship game matchups.

Hamilton holds the best odds to appear in the final game of the year and 32 percent odds to win the game. They are in the two most likely Grey Cup showdowns.

Calgary sits not too far behind

Both Montreal and Edmonton have similar odds, however, the winner of the Eastern Semi-Final still has to go through Tim Hortons Field. The fourth most-likely game for the title has Edmonton going up against Saskatchewan in the first-ever West vs. West Grey Cup game.

» Buy: Tickets
» View: Full League Standings
» View: Schedule

The model considers the following:

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular-season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team).  For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).

For instance, if Winnipeg won the Grey Cup in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 1,990/10,000 = 19.90%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.

Here’s a look at how all the teams stack up: