CFL Pass

Best bets, CFL week 3: Don’t bet the &^#&^&#ing under!

For as long as Cflpass has been betting on CFL football, it sure has taken quite some time for a certain reality to set in. And that reality is this: Until the snow starts falling, *never bet the under* in CFL games. If you’re thinking about betting the under, just don’t bet — not even if an Alouettes team of the late 2010s is involved.

Case in point: The CFL in week 3. The sports books have three of the four home teams as double-digit favorites; the fourth is the Winnipeg Blue Bombers who only gained traction as a Grey Cup contender during their bye week. Far be it for CFLpass to debate the wisdom of Vegas, but this is the freakin’ CFL here; does anyone believe in a week without a single upset? I mean, since for…

Edmonton Eskimos +5½ at Winnipeg Blue Bombers, over/under 56 points,
we’re saying take the Bombers -5½. While common wisdom sees the Eskimos’ 2-0 start as proof of underratedness going into 2019, they’ve gotten those wins against a couple of pretty sorry teams in the Montreal Alouettes and BC Lions (the latter at least for now). And while the Esks were able to run up 39 points on the discombobulated BC D, these Bombers might just score more even if Edmonton does it again.

And, yeah, you’ll be wanting to take the under on an O/U of 56 points as well.

The rest of these are a bloody mess:

Montreal Alouettes +13 at Hamilton Tiger-Cats, o/u 58
BC Lions +10½ at Calgary Stampeders, over/under 53
Toronto Argonauts -11½ at Saskatchewan Roughriders, 53 points.

All of these lines are just pleading for sucker bets: Taking Hamilton -13 as the Alouettes are forced to start Vernon Adams Jr. at QB at the helm of a weak offense for the umpteenth time in the past five years – this a week after serving up that vicious 64-burger on the Argos. But what CFL fan couldn’t imagine Brandon Bridge entering in the third quarter and leading a few scoring drives against a complacent-unto-arrogant Ticats’ D?

And what about that Lions +10½? Sure, the Stampeders are coming out of a bye week, but they’ve been noticeably sluggish in the opening three games of recent seasons. And can BC really be as bad as their play in games 1 and 2 might indicate? CFLpass can’t say for sure and so won’t be covering that TD and a half.

Finally, the Argonauts need to chase the 50-point drubbing they got with … a trip to Saskatchewan. For the Riders’ home opener. So … the Argos get smoked, right? Except here’s to thinking that a) this Saskatchewan team isn’t that great despite the 41 they scored last week, and b) they won’t be able to march the ball up and down at will as against the Ottawa Redblacks. And what do we really know about Toronto after one game? (Not much, the front office there hopes.)

In the final analysis then, in addition to the Eskimos-Bombers bets, we’ll say take over-58 in the Montreal-Hamilton game and definitely take over-53 in the Toronto-Saskatchewan game.

(Now watch a buncha Patriots-Rams 10-3 games happen…)