CFL Pass

CFL Pick ‘Em, Week 5: This is my religion

Three wins, one loss – we’re not talking the Calgary Stampeders here, we’re talking the CFLpass performance in CFL Pick ‘Em last week.

That’s right: 3-1, and as that great American philosopher George Costanza explained, “it’s all happening because I’m completely ignoring every urge towards common sense and good judgment I’ve ever had. This is no longer just some crazy notion … this is my religion.”

Don’t even talk to me about small sample sizes. After an utterly impossible-to-understatedly unpredictable season that has leveled the Pick ‘Em playing field for experts in-the-know, CFL devotees and those who prognosticate based on colour scheme, I’m sticking with Doing The Opposite for week five.

With one exception, that is. We’ll start with that one...

Jon Cornish deservedly got kudos – and a “CFL Top Performers” nod – for his 120-yard performance against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers last week, but few celebrating the man’s show have noted the paucity of touches he got in the first half. In the first 30 minutes of play, Cornish got just 24 yards on four carries. In another words, his 2015 is just getting started as he faces arguably the league’s worst rushing defence (though statistically worse are BC and Saskatchewan).

Going with Cornish & Co. is not Doing the Opposite, but nevertheless the pick is Calgary Stampeders over Ottawa RedBlacks; pick trend 86% to Calgary, total points scored 42.

So on Friday night, the Argos are traveling to the West Coast to play a late game against BC Lions. The East-to-West factor has been in vogue in recent years among NFL prognosticators, and Jamie Nye over at the CFL official website brings it up in his weekly predictions column. So let’s Do The Opposite and base this Pick ‘Em pick entirely on one statistic, which in itself was produced by a fairly radically different BC team.

In 2014, the Lions went 3-3 in all home late (i.e. 7pm) games; however, the team managed a 3-1 mark against Toronto and teams more easterly. Just to make things interesting, though, that sole loss was the 40-23 defeat at the hands of … the Argonauts. How does one run with the opposite of the exception within a mere four-game set? No one said this would be easy…Toronto Argonauts over BC Lions; pick trend 46% to Toronto, total points scored 62.

Edmonton’s Shakir Bell produced the most talked-about debut in the CFL since, well, Rakeem Cato, and this week gets to play the run defence that was pummeled by Cornish. Thus, the church of the Opposite dictates that said Winnipeg D, which is just one TD better than the porous Saskatchewan unit thus far this season, will make the 2015 Alouettes look like the 2014 Redblacks. Winnipeg Blue Bombers over Edmonton Eskimos; pick trend 42% to Winnipeg, total points scored 32.

Finally, since I’m down with CFLpass lead writer Travis Currah’s contention that the Hamilton-Saskatchewan matchup will be the Game of the Week, Oppositians can safely bet that this one will be a real snoozer.

On top of this unfortunate possibility are all those question marks surrounding the injury-riddled Roughriders roster, Corey Chamblin’s evermore befuddling game plans bringing his head closer to the chopping block and the slowly recovering Hamilton offense. Every instinct screams that Hamilton wins in a walk, but if every instinct I have is wrong … Saskatchewan Roughriders over Hamilton Tiger-Cats; pick trend 53% to Saskatchewan, total points scored 32.

– written by Os Davis