CFL Pass

CFL Pick ‘Em, Week 4: If every instinct I have is wrong…

It came to me in a flash, like any hard truth learned during self-examination. Of course, the answers to my woes suffered in an-already brutal season of CFL Pick ‘Em lay in a 21-year-old episode of an American television show. Just substitute “CFL Pick ‘Em” for every utterance of “life” in the below clip and see if you can relate.

So here’s my (our?) chance to turn it all around. After all, as the cool logic reinforces the Constanzan Theory:

Here goes nothing. The picks for the week four edition of CFL Pick ‘Em, doing the opposite applied, look like the following.

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats will enjoy the extra preparation and recovery time post-bye week after a most impressive 52-point display at Winnipeg which had in turn chased an opening-week loss that easily could have been a win – all this despite entering the season with the most question marks in the CFL due to rampant injuries.

On the other side of the field for this one, the Montreal Alouettes defence has allowed just one touchdown in the past two games and last week’s loss can be set almost completely squarely on a pair of mistakes by rookie QB Rakeem Cato. So which prevails, the unstoppable force or the immovable object? Prevailing logic (and the bookmakers) like the former, giving the Tiger-Cats a 2½-point handicap; this seems about right in what should be a high-scoring battle. Thus, Montreal Alouettes over Hamilton Tiger-Cats; pick trend 15% to Montreal, total points scored 42.

In the first of two back-to-back matchups this week, the Eskimos travel to Ottawa to face a RedBlacks side they dominated in all aspects of the game in week three. The Edmonton defence kept Henry Burris befuddled and well away from the back of tricks he’d manage to pull out in weeks one and two; his counterpart Matt Nichols formed a nice battery with Adarius Bowman early and often as the RedBlacks secondary resembled the ineffective bunch expected from day one.

In short, it’s tough to imagine Ottawa improving by four TDs to keep this one close – not to mention the Esks going for 46 again. The pick is therefore Ottawa RedBlacks over Edmonton Eskimos; pick trend 35% to Ottawa, total points scored 63.

So Travis Lulay can’t possibly reproduce his fantastic week three showing against Saskatchewan, right? The Roughriders can’t possibly sink to 0-4, including two losses in a row to a first-year CFL head coach, right? With the muttering heard in Rider Nation, Corey Chamblin will definitely break out of his odd conservative coaching funk and will address/solve his team’s fourth-quarter collapses, right?

At least some of the Riders’ troubles thus far in ’15 can be blamed on dumb luck, right? Finally, there is absolutely, positively no way Saskatchewan can drop yet another heartbreaker on its fans, right? Right. Go with the BC Lions over the Saskatchewan Roughriders (probably in overtime); pick trend 32% to BC, total points scored 55.

This week’s final game features the banged-up, sure to be reshuffled starting teams of Winnipeg and Calgary. While it might be easy to simply make this Pick ‘Em choice a question of “Who’s second-stringers do you like better?” A few factors weigh heavily on the Stampeders, however: First and foremost the short week of just four off-days they’ll have faced after the grueling, flag-extending Monday night cliffhanger against the Toronto Argonauts.

Even more crucial are the losses of offensive linemen Edwin Harrison and Dan Federkeil in that Monday win, bad news for a running game led by the less-effective Jon Cornish. That’s a lotta minuses piled up on the visitors even before the kickoff, so you can probably guess where this pick is going: Calgary Stampeders over Winnipeg Blue Bombers; pick trend 69% to Calgary (are you all *insane*?), total points scored 60.

Now where’s that chicken salad sandwich…?!

– written by Os Davis